We’ve been fielding numerous calls from both clients looking to enter the home buying market as well as owners of properties here in the area wondering if, or when, they will be able to consider selling. The answer really depends on what type of property is being sold and what neighborhood it is located in. Some of Oakland’s neighborhoods with stood the current depreciation longer than others; therefore the devaluation has not been as drastic to this point.
Which areas and home types felt the hit first?
When discussing areas with the highest depreciation of value they tend to be the lower cost areas and neighborhoods that started to feel the slow down first. When looking at property types in more expensive areas of Oakland it was the condo market (starting with the smallest units first and moving up to the larger ones shortly thereafter).
Why did these homes and areas start dropping in value first?
When discussing which areas slowed first and why, you need to look at the lending market and the type of mortgage loans being sold to the public at the time. The zero down loans, 5% down loans and other loans being marketed to buyers who ordinarily would not be able to buy a home started to disappear. These loans tended to be a large majority of what was fueling the housing sales in these lower priced groups so when the loans began to dry up, these segments began to slow in sales.
When and why did the upper-end neighborhoods begin to slow in value?
The top three items that come to mind when I think of these contributors are as follows:
First, we have the media bombarding all of us over and over again with all the impending doom that was foretold as coming (a self fulfilling prophecy?). Second, stated income loans went away. A stated income loan is one in which you declare your income but do not have to prove it via traditional methods of bank verification. This type of loan is heavily used by investors, and self employed buyers (I know this first hand as a real estate agent because it was the catalyst for our last three home purchases). Lastly and probably the most aggressive is the market collapse and loss of portfolio wealth.
What caused some neighborhoods in the Oakland area that had larger more expensive homes start slowing down before others?
The answer to this question is relatively simple to goes back to the oldest adage in Real Estate about what the three most important factors are that drive value – “location, location, location”. Once buyers start to feel like they can be pickier, or that there is no hurry, they become more intent on buying a home that really fits all of their needs (not just some of their needs). Therefore, buyers who would in some markets choose to sacrifice a level yard or perhaps sidewalks decide not to forego these requirements and start waiting for homes that meet all these potential wants.
Is there more to come – Will the market continue to fall?
The answer to this is most likely yes. Before I go any further with this info, I want to say that this is a great time to buy. Prices have certainly taken a majority of the total depreciation and combined with this, interest rates are truly at a historic low. These two situations combined have lined up to be the perfect storm for buyers to succeed in! Properties will most likely drop further, especially in the upper end sectors, but not nearly to the place homes have in the more aggressively impacted market segments (we can discuss why in a future blog). Another thing to note is that interest rates are predicted to go up in the next 12 to 18 months and when this happens it could counter any gains acquired by a buyer in that future market.
If you would like to discuss the purchase of a home in the greater Oakland area including the surroundings towns up the hwy 80 and hwy 580 corridors, we would be happy to help. We can be reached at 888-627-4399 x.0.